Prediction Time
Posted on November 3rd, 2008 by catalyst into the Uncategorized categoryIt's Go Time for the Election
Here are my predictions:
ELECTORAL VOTE
Obama wins 349 Electoral Votes: (All the Kerry states, plus Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Missouri and Iowa.)
POPULAR VOTE
Obama - 51.3%, McCain - 47.4%, Other - 1.3%
SENATE
Dems get to 58 Senate Seats: Winning - VA, CO, NM, AK, NC, OR, NH and MN.
HOUSE
Dems win 28 House Seats.
That's my guess, admittedly in favor of the Democrats. I just don't think that given the current political climate, Republicans are going to do a very good job getting out the vote. Of course, I certainly could be wrong.
Anyone else have thoughts? Anyone brave enough to predict a McCain victory?
For help in making predictions:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/
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November 3rd, 2008 at 1:23 pm
349!?! That’s a crush. I’m thinking it’s going to be closer to 320. Take out Missouri for sure and maybe Florida. Either way, I’m hoping to be dancing with green fairies tomorrow night.
I hope.
November 3rd, 2008 at 1:44 pm
All I know, is I don’t see how McCain could possibly win. Not even with a pretty running mate.
November 3rd, 2008 at 2:19 pm
I think that it will be closer than most are thinking. I have 298 for Obama.
My crystal ball has 57-58 in the senate.
I have no idea about the house.
The popular vote? Who knows? I am going with 49.5% Obama and 48% McCain. Bush performed better than the last polls in Ohio and a few other states. I think McCain will do the same.
I will be glad when this election is over. It has been like crack. Not good for me but I can’t put it away.
November 3rd, 2008 at 2:51 pm
GOP pundit on CNN, Alex Castellanos, just said that Obama’s floor in the electoral college is 318.
I re-ran the numbers on the CNN electoral map. McCain has to do more than simply runs the table to win. He has to win a state where he is considerably behind. Obviously, they are shooting for Penn but that is quite a long shot.
I am rooting for 269-269, just for the fun of it. I would also find it
November 3rd, 2008 at 2:53 pm
OOps.
I would also find it fun for the situation to not be settled as 1 million folks are at Obama’s party. Nothing against Obama. I would be saying the same no matter who was throwing the party. I’m just kinda sick that way.
November 4th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
Music to vote by: McSame
November 4th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Or if your persuasion swings the other way: Hussein.
November 4th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
Everyone has their reasons for voting for a particular person or party. I voted republican, simply because of their tendencies against government run welfare and social programs. i know that sounds bad, cause as Christ followers we’re suppose to be for all that stuff, right? I agree, but it saddens me that the government and the democratic party is viewed as a savior to many of people’s problems.
It is the Church’s responsibility to take care of the poor, sick, widowed, and homeless; but we are satisfied with that opportunity being taken out of our hands. We’ve become complacent, and are actually glad that responsibility is taken out of our hands, so that we can use more of our tithe to build more buildings instead of giving it to needy people. We can keep it all for ourselves now, and let the government handle the God endowed responsibilities that was intended for the Church to administer.
Look, there are legit reasons to vote for and against both the candidates, but the idea that people are turning less and less to the Church for help worries me. I know that it’s definitely the our (the Church’s) fault, but i still don’t want the government to get the recognition for what should be God’s recognition through the charity of the Church.
November 4th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
K, nice idea steward. It would be great if people were just naturally generous. However, 3 years ago, I was 8 months pregnant and my husband went schitzo and abandoned me. Would I have wanted to be at the mercy of “the Church” at that time?, the answer is, “NO WAY!” Thank GOD for the government.
November 4th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
I agree, freewill is a nice idea, i wonder who came up with the concept? Whoever that was, He must have been out of his mind.
November 4th, 2008 at 8:46 pm
the thought process of people just blow my mind: People aren’t naturally generous, so let’s force them to be?
November 4th, 2008 at 9:01 pm
Yes, Steward, I am glad people were forced to help me. Probably a few cents from your paycheck went to me. Just think of it as a tithe and maybe you’d feel better.
November 4th, 2008 at 9:02 pm
rockyroad,
Somehow i doubt no one would have helped if you asked friends at church, or your family to help you. it’s ironic cause my wife is 8 months pregnant almost to the day, and if i left her, i will tell you with more than 100% certainty, she could have asked anyone of her friends at her fellowship or her family and they would have turned over backwards helping her. The organization is not the Church, it’s the people. So may i suggest that when you seek help, whether it be financial or emotional, don’t go to the organization to help you, cause the organization is a humanistic invention of what someone thought an operational church should act like. Go to the people.
November 4th, 2008 at 9:06 pm
I’m sure you were glad, but what about the flip side? If you had an opportunity to help someone, would you rather someone ask you for help, and you freely give it? or would you rather have someone take it from you without even asking?
November 4th, 2008 at 9:06 pm
Let’s give Catalyst a pat on the back for his predictions! Pretty much dead on on the percentages.
November 4th, 2008 at 9:24 pm
OK, maybe a little soon to say that… since they’re not all counted yet:-)
November 4th, 2008 at 9:40 pm
Steward, I could give you a blow-by-blow description of what I went through 3 years ago, but that wouldn’t really be the point would it? In fact, we are already, WAY off topic. All I was responding to is that when you are in a bad situation and you need help, being “at the mercy of the church” isn’t a good place to be in. I am a person who has an exceptionally cool family, and exceptionally cool friends (for which I am grateful), but something I found in all of this, is that when you are in a crisis, (this is a generaliztion) Christians/religious people make very poor company. They are a very insecure, dysfunctional people group. I can’t imagine what it would be like for people, who do not have cool friends and family, if the government aid were cut back any more than it has been, or went away. My point: Leaving humanitarianism up to Christians/religious people. BAD idea.
November 4th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
Steward, if you don’t believe in taxes, read Romans 13. Then consider that the New Testament commanded the Church to be charitable even though its members lived as subject of an earthly empire that taxed them. You can always choose to give to your favorite charity.
Obama won. Maybe this will be the end of a lot of people idiotically saying that we can make a “Christian” nation by voting Republican. Now perhaps these people will be forced to ask how individuals become Christians in the first place, and will begin to live lives that are a witness - kinda like the Sermon on the Mount…
November 4th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
’scrupe! It’s good to hear from you. I would listen to your songs except that my old computer is terminally slow when XBox COD4 is running through the router.
Maybe I can hear it tomorrow when a certain gamer is in school.
November 5th, 2008 at 8:58 am
I’d just like to point out that Obama is currently at 349 in the electorate.
Not bad, cat.
November 5th, 2008 at 9:05 am
Bill Clinton would like to remind you he twice got more than 370. Reagan and Bush 41 both got over 425. It’s certainly a solid win, and one for which I’m certainly grateful, but not all that big.
November 5th, 2008 at 9:07 am
Hi Anna!
With the last few elections dragging on into the wee hours for us mid-westerners, it was so strange to be watching TV here at 10PM and “BAM!” (think Emeril) the Fat Lady was singing.
Looks like the people preferred the “McSame” song - really had to laugh when CNN.com had the headline ‘red states turning blue’ which was one my lyrics in ‘McSame’
Sung to Eric Clapton’s tune “Cocaine” … http://www.vjam.net/temp/mcsame.mp3
So, with the election over, will the blog get back to ragging on CBC and MFI?
‘Scrupe
November 5th, 2008 at 9:34 am
Undoubtedly…ain’t you never heard of job security?
-joe